Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have a wide range of additional environmental and economic consequences. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forec...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | Report |
Language: | unknown |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/19-021%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf |
id |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:pen:papers:19-021 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:pen:papers:19-021 2024-04-14T08:06:05+00:00 Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/19-021%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf unknown https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/19-021%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf preprint ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:28:05Z The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have a wide range of additional environmental and economic consequences. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best ?tting statistical model indicates that sea ice is diminishing at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of sea ice loss even in high carbon emissions scenarios. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. This analysis indicates almost a 60 percent chance of an e?ectively ice-free Arctic Ocean in the 2030s – much earlier than the average projection from global climate models. Sea ice extent; climate models; climate change; climate trends; climate predi-tion; cryospheric science Report Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
op_collection_id |
ftrepec |
language |
unknown |
description |
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice is a key factor determining the pace and intensity of future global climate change; moreover, declines in sea ice can have a wide range of additional environmental and economic consequences. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best ?tting statistical model indicates that sea ice is diminishing at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of sea ice loss even in high carbon emissions scenarios. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. This analysis indicates almost a 60 percent chance of an e?ectively ice-free Arctic Ocean in the 2030s – much earlier than the average projection from global climate models. Sea ice extent; climate models; climate change; climate trends; climate predi-tion; cryospheric science |
format |
Report |
author |
Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch |
spellingShingle |
Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
author_facet |
Francis X. Diebold Glenn D. Rudebusch |
author_sort |
Francis X. Diebold |
title |
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
title_short |
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
title_full |
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
title_fullStr |
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections |
title_sort |
probability assessments of an ice-free arctic: comparing statistical and climate model projections |
url |
https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/19-021%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/19-021%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf |
_version_ |
1796302718017470464 |