ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY?
International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's ten major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:mos:moswps:2006-11 2024-04-14T08:09:23+00:00 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? Hooi Hooi Lean Russell Smyth http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/1106malaysia.pdf unknown http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/1106malaysia.pdf preprint ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:36:50Z International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's ten major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. While the effects of shocks are not permanent we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets have generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase. Report Avian flu RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Lagrange ENVELOPE(-62.597,-62.597,-64.529,-64.529) |
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International visitor arrivals from Malaysia's ten major source markets are examined using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The LM unit root test with one break is able to reject the unit root null for between 60 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and 90 per cent of source markets where the break is specified as in the intercept and slope. The LM unit root test with two breaks is able to reject the unit root null for all source markets, irrespective of how the break is specified. This result suggests that the effects of shocks on the growth path of tourist arrivals to Malaysia from its major markets are only transitory and that Malaysia's tourist sector is sustainable in the long run. While the effects of shocks are not permanent we do find that following shocks the growth in tourist arrivals from Malaysia's source markets have generally slowed. This result suggests there is a need to reduce the negative effects of slower growth in the recovery phase. |
format |
Report |
author |
Hooi Hooi Lean Russell Smyth |
spellingShingle |
Hooi Hooi Lean Russell Smyth ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
author_facet |
Hooi Hooi Lean Russell Smyth |
author_sort |
Hooi Hooi Lean |
title |
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
title_short |
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
title_full |
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
title_fullStr |
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
title_full_unstemmed |
ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS, AVIAN FLU AND TERRORIST THREATS: ARE SHOCKS TO MALAYSIAN TOURIST ARRIVALS PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY? |
title_sort |
asian financial crisis, avian flu and terrorist threats: are shocks to malaysian tourist arrivals permanent or transitory? |
url |
http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/1106malaysia.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-62.597,-62.597,-64.529,-64.529) |
geographic |
Lagrange |
geographic_facet |
Lagrange |
genre |
Avian flu |
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Avian flu |
op_relation |
http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2006/1106malaysia.pdf |
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1796306890710319104 |