Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example
Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:131-149 2024-04-14T08:09:22+00:00 Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 article ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:31:47Z Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006 Scenarios, Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Judgment, Avian flu Article in Journal/Newspaper Avian flu RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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Narrative approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the variables critical to creating and controlling a risk, then to instantiate them in terms of coherent themes (e.g., organizational failure, strategic surprise). Computational approaches to analyzing risks seek to identify the same critical variables, then to instantiate them in terms of their probability. Disaster risk analysis faces complex, novel processes that strain the capabilities of both approaches. We propose an approach that integrates elements of each, relying on what we call structured scenarios and computable models. It is illustrated by framing the analysis of plans for a possible avian flu pandemic. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006 Scenarios, Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Judgment, Avian flu |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant |
spellingShingle |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
author_facet |
Baruch Fischhoff Wändi Bruin Ümit Güvenç Denise Caruso Larry Brilliant |
author_sort |
Baruch Fischhoff |
title |
Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_short |
Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_full |
Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_fullStr |
Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example |
title_sort |
analyzing disaster risks and plans: an avian flu example |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 |
genre |
Avian flu |
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Avian flu |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-006-0175-8 |
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1796306880955416576 |