Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 |
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:inm:orinte:v:38:y:2008:i:5:p:382-405 2024-04-14T08:09:42+00:00 Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 unknown http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 article ftrepec https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 2024-03-19T10:37:07Z Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup et al. [Amstrup, S. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] and Hunter et al. [Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, S. C. Amstrup, E. V. Regehr, I. Stirling. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming , as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently contravened. Consequently, their forecasts are unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers. We recommend that researchers apply all relevant principles properly when important public-policy decisions depend on their forecasts. adaptation, bias, climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Beaufort Sea Sea ice Alaska RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Anchorage Stirling ENVELOPE(164.117,164.117,-71.550,-71.550) Interfaces 38 5 382 405 |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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ftrepec |
language |
unknown |
description |
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup et al. [Amstrup, S. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] and Hunter et al. [Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, S. C. Amstrup, E. V. Regehr, I. Stirling. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming , as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently contravened. Consequently, their forecasts are unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers. We recommend that researchers apply all relevant principles properly when important public-policy decisions depend on their forecasts. adaptation, bias, climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon |
spellingShingle |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
author_facet |
J. Scott Armstrong Kesten C. Green Willie Soon |
author_sort |
J. Scott Armstrong |
title |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_short |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_full |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_fullStr |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_full_unstemmed |
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit |
title_sort |
polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(164.117,164.117,-71.550,-71.550) |
geographic |
Anchorage Stirling |
geographic_facet |
Anchorage Stirling |
genre |
Beaufort Sea Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Beaufort Sea Sea ice Alaska |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1080.0383 |
container_title |
Interfaces |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
382 |
op_container_end_page |
405 |
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1796307185154654208 |