Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the ?rst half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infectio...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:ifs:cemmap:21/20 2024-04-14T08:13:40+00:00 Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 Ali Hortacsu Jiarui Liu Timothy Schwieg https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CWP2120-Estimating-the-Fraction-of-Unreported-Infections-in-Epidemics-with-a-Known-Epicenter.pdf unknown https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CWP2120-Estimating-the-Fraction-of-Unreported-Infections-in-Epidemics-with-a-Known-Epicenter.pdf preprint ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:41:27Z We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the ?rst half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties. Report Iceland RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the ?rst half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties. |
format |
Report |
author |
Ali Hortacsu Jiarui Liu Timothy Schwieg |
spellingShingle |
Ali Hortacsu Jiarui Liu Timothy Schwieg Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
author_facet |
Ali Hortacsu Jiarui Liu Timothy Schwieg |
author_sort |
Ali Hortacsu |
title |
Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
title_short |
Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
title_full |
Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19 |
title_sort |
estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: an application to covid-19 |
url |
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CWP2120-Estimating-the-Fraction-of-Unreported-Infections-in-Epidemics-with-a-Known-Epicenter.pdf |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/CWP2120-Estimating-the-Fraction-of-Unreported-Infections-in-Epidemics-with-a-Known-Epicenter.pdf |
_version_ |
1796311701338980352 |