Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region
In arid to semi-arid regions, vulnerability to climate change combined with the overexploitation of water resources is jeopardizing food security. In the Souss-Massa region in central Morocco, the rural population relies on growing olives for a living. The management of these orchards is mostly trad...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:3:p:1340-:d:488278 2024-04-14T08:15:59+00:00 Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region Houria Abahous Lhoussaine Bouchaou Abdelghani Chehbouni https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/ unknown https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/ article ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:39:11Z In arid to semi-arid regions, vulnerability to climate change combined with the overexploitation of water resources is jeopardizing food security. In the Souss-Massa region in central Morocco, the rural population relies on growing olives for a living. The management of these orchards is mostly traditional under rainfed irrigation, which induces a high level of dependence on climate variability. In the present study, we investigate the long-term trends of the relationship between the observed olive yields and global climate patterns during the period 1973–2014. We apply lagged Spearman’s correlations and cross-wavelet analysis to detect the potential influence of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the yield variability of olive orchards. The results of a Mann-Kendall test show a statistically significant decreasing trend in olive yields during the studied period. Statistically significant negative correlations were observed for (lag = −1) with spring and summer NINO 3.4 and with summer and autumn PDO. No statistically significant correlations between olive yields and NAO and IOD were observed. The results of wavelet coherence between annual olive yields and PDO and ENSO revealed that the highest values of power spectrum coherence occurred during the (lag = 0) spring PDO and (lag = −1) spring ENSO, both with an antiphase relationship. During the studied period, the extreme events of El Niña and El Niño years corresponded to below average yields. climate oscillation; olive yields; semi-arid; agriculture; wavelet coherence Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Indian Kendall ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) Pacific |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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description |
In arid to semi-arid regions, vulnerability to climate change combined with the overexploitation of water resources is jeopardizing food security. In the Souss-Massa region in central Morocco, the rural population relies on growing olives for a living. The management of these orchards is mostly traditional under rainfed irrigation, which induces a high level of dependence on climate variability. In the present study, we investigate the long-term trends of the relationship between the observed olive yields and global climate patterns during the period 1973–2014. We apply lagged Spearman’s correlations and cross-wavelet analysis to detect the potential influence of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the yield variability of olive orchards. The results of a Mann-Kendall test show a statistically significant decreasing trend in olive yields during the studied period. Statistically significant negative correlations were observed for (lag = −1) with spring and summer NINO 3.4 and with summer and autumn PDO. No statistically significant correlations between olive yields and NAO and IOD were observed. The results of wavelet coherence between annual olive yields and PDO and ENSO revealed that the highest values of power spectrum coherence occurred during the (lag = 0) spring PDO and (lag = −1) spring ENSO, both with an antiphase relationship. During the studied period, the extreme events of El Niña and El Niño years corresponded to below average yields. climate oscillation; olive yields; semi-arid; agriculture; wavelet coherence |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Houria Abahous Lhoussaine Bouchaou Abdelghani Chehbouni |
spellingShingle |
Houria Abahous Lhoussaine Bouchaou Abdelghani Chehbouni Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
author_facet |
Houria Abahous Lhoussaine Bouchaou Abdelghani Chehbouni |
author_sort |
Houria Abahous |
title |
Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
title_short |
Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
title_full |
Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
title_fullStr |
Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global Climate Pattern Impacts on Long-Term Olive Yields in Northwestern Africa: Case from Souss-Massa Region |
title_sort |
global climate pattern impacts on long-term olive yields in northwestern africa: case from souss-massa region |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/ |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-59.828,-59.828,-63.497,-63.497) |
geographic |
Indian Kendall Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Kendall Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/pdf https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/3/1340/ |
_version_ |
1796314505921167360 |