Le prix du pétrole et de l'activité économique régionale au Canada

• Main Author: Carl Gaudreault
• Format: Report
• Language: unknown
• Subjects: Canada; British Columbia; Newfoundland; Terre-Neuve
• Online Access: http://www.fin.gc.ca/scripts/Publication_Request/request2_e.asp?doc=wp2003-15f.pdf

This study continues the works of Gaudreault (2002) but on a regional dimension. We first build two distinct Canadian regions based on the provinces that are net producers or net importers of crude oil. Thus, variables of economic activity of the East region (Ontario through Newfoundland) and the West region (Manitoba through British Columbia) are introduced in the model in place of the Canadian economic activity as a whole. Newfoundland is treated as a net importer on the whole estimation period (1962 to 2001) though since 1999 it has been a net exporter of crude oil. The results show that, following a positive real oil price shock, the response of economic activity in the East region is significant and slightly stronger than the national average, while the economic activity in the West region rises significantly after four quarters. Eight quarters after the shock, cumulative impulse responses for the West region are not significant anymore. Furthermore, results show that Alberta is the main source for the rise in economic activity of the West region, and that Ontario is slightly more sensible to a positive oil price shock than Quebec, probably reflecting a more important commercial link with the United States. On a shorter period, excluding 1970’s oil shocks, the East region has a response relatively similar to the one obtained on the complete period, while the West region has generally a positive response slightly stronger and faster. Dans cette étude, nous approfondissons les travaux empiriques de Gaudreault (2002) sous un angle régional. Nous construisons premièrement deux régions canadiennes distinctes sur la base des provinces canadiennes productrices nettes ou importatrices nettes de pétrole brut. Ainsi, les variables d’activité économique de la région de l’Est (Ontario jusqu’à Terre-Neuve) et de la région de l’Ouest (Manitoba jusqu’en Colombie-Britannique) sont introduites dans le modèle à la place de la variable d’activité économique du Canada. Terre-Neuve est considérée comme une province importatrice ...