Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area
Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery ar...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:eee:marpol:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:82-89 2024-04-14T08:14:37+00:00 Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Vikebø, Frode http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X13001504 unknown http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X13001504 article ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:27:52Z Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery area for several economically important fish species. It hosts significant bird colonies and the world's largest-known deep-sea coral reef. New areas will be opened to petroleum production only if its high environmental value can be maintained. A risk analysis approach has become central to this decision, where the probability of a ‘worst-case scenario’ (a major oil spill) is assessed together with associated environmental impacts. This paper examines and characterises uncertainties associated with these risk assessments and some of the surrounding debates. Further, the paper reveals implications of these uncertainties: (1) potential values embedded in the risk assessments, (2) lack of validity of quantified worst-case scenarios and their probabilities and impacts, (3) limited prospects of filling addressed knowledge gaps and (4) how risk assessments restrict the debate on what issues and uncertainties are considered relevant. Taken together, this suggests that discussions on alternative approaches to decision making should be more prominent in public and political debates. Worst-case scenario; Risk assessments; Petroleum production; Uncertainty; Science for policy; Article in Journal/Newspaper Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Lofoten Norway Vesterålen ENVELOPE(14.939,14.939,68.754,68.754) |
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Open Polar |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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description |
Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery area for several economically important fish species. It hosts significant bird colonies and the world's largest-known deep-sea coral reef. New areas will be opened to petroleum production only if its high environmental value can be maintained. A risk analysis approach has become central to this decision, where the probability of a ‘worst-case scenario’ (a major oil spill) is assessed together with associated environmental impacts. This paper examines and characterises uncertainties associated with these risk assessments and some of the surrounding debates. Further, the paper reveals implications of these uncertainties: (1) potential values embedded in the risk assessments, (2) lack of validity of quantified worst-case scenarios and their probabilities and impacts, (3) limited prospects of filling addressed knowledge gaps and (4) how risk assessments restrict the debate on what issues and uncertainties are considered relevant. Taken together, this suggests that discussions on alternative approaches to decision making should be more prominent in public and political debates. Worst-case scenario; Risk assessments; Petroleum production; Uncertainty; Science for policy; |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Vikebø, Frode |
spellingShingle |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Vikebø, Frode Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
author_facet |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Vikebø, Frode |
author_sort |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis |
title |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_short |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_full |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_fullStr |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_sort |
inadequate risk assessments – a study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the lofoten area |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X13001504 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(14.939,14.939,68.754,68.754) |
geographic |
Lofoten Norway Vesterålen |
geographic_facet |
Lofoten Norway Vesterålen |
genre |
Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen |
genre_facet |
Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X13001504 |
_version_ |
1796312819136724992 |