The tax-free year in Iceland: A natural experiment to explore the impact of a short-term increase in labor supply on the risk of heart attacks

• Main Authors: Ólafsdóttir, Thorhildur, Hrafnkelsson, Birgir, Thorgeirsson, Gudmundur, Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Subjects: Iceland
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629616300455

Evidence is mixed on whether society-wide economic conditions affect cardiovascular health and the reasons for the suggested relationship are largely untested. We explore whether a short-term increase in labor supply affects the probability of acute myocardial infarctions, using a natural experiment in Iceland. In 1987 personal income taxes were temporarily reduced to zero, resulting in an overall increase in labor supply. We merge and analyze individual-level, registry-based data on earnings and AMIs including all Icelandic men and women aged 45–74 during the period 1982–1992. The results support the prominent hypothesis of increased work as a mechanism explaining worsening heart health in upswings, for men aged 45–64 who were self-employed. We furthermore find a larger increase in probability of AMIs during the tax-free year in men aged 45–54 than men aged 55–64. Coronary heart disease; Acute myocardial infarction; Labor supply; Natural experiment; Iceland;