Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists
This paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists' perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050. Debate spans published maritime oil flows globally, diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth, shipping market changes and haul lengths. A classic Delphi s...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:eee:enepol:v:63:y:2013:i:c:p:553-561 2024-04-14T08:07:58+00:00 Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists Dinwoodie, John Tuck, Sarah Rigot-Müller, Patrick http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008720 unknown http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008720 article ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:32:08Z This paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists' perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050. Debate spans published maritime oil flows globally, diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth, shipping market changes and haul lengths. A classic Delphi study to explore the perceptions of likely trends and flows to 2050 recruited a panel of early career and established maritime specialists, many with long term career commitments to this industry. Underpinned by market volatility and legislative uncertainty, the perceptions of both groups coincided and were conservative. Local sourcing, new Arctic seaways and fossil fuel intolerance will tend to reduce oil freight work but perceptions of ship re-routing to avoid for example Emission Control Areas and piracy would tend to lengthen hauls. In advanced industrial nations, reducing energy intensities and diminishing social tolerance of fossil fuels imply gradually reducing maritime oil shipments. However, to achieve radical national commitments to carbon emissions reductions will necessitate specialist education for naturally conservative maritime professionals and vigorous oil import reduction policies to curtail domestic demand for oil shipments. Maritime oil freight flows; Oil shipment forecasts; Maritime specialists' Delphi survey; Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Arctic |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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This paper aims to synthesise maritime specialists' perceptions of changing patterns of maritime oil freight flows to 2050. Debate spans published maritime oil flows globally, diverse drivers of future flows including economic growth, shipping market changes and haul lengths. A classic Delphi study to explore the perceptions of likely trends and flows to 2050 recruited a panel of early career and established maritime specialists, many with long term career commitments to this industry. Underpinned by market volatility and legislative uncertainty, the perceptions of both groups coincided and were conservative. Local sourcing, new Arctic seaways and fossil fuel intolerance will tend to reduce oil freight work but perceptions of ship re-routing to avoid for example Emission Control Areas and piracy would tend to lengthen hauls. In advanced industrial nations, reducing energy intensities and diminishing social tolerance of fossil fuels imply gradually reducing maritime oil shipments. However, to achieve radical national commitments to carbon emissions reductions will necessitate specialist education for naturally conservative maritime professionals and vigorous oil import reduction policies to curtail domestic demand for oil shipments. Maritime oil freight flows; Oil shipment forecasts; Maritime specialists' Delphi survey; |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dinwoodie, John Tuck, Sarah Rigot-Müller, Patrick |
spellingShingle |
Dinwoodie, John Tuck, Sarah Rigot-Müller, Patrick Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
author_facet |
Dinwoodie, John Tuck, Sarah Rigot-Müller, Patrick |
author_sort |
Dinwoodie, John |
title |
Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
title_short |
Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
title_full |
Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
title_fullStr |
Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
title_full_unstemmed |
Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
title_sort |
maritime oil freight flows to 2050: delphi perceptions of maritime specialists |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008720 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513008720 |
_version_ |
1796305403381809152 |