Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model
Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during wi...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:2:p:303-313 2024-04-14T08:16:43+00:00 Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model Rammig, A. Jönsson, A.M. Hickler, T. Smith, B. Bärring, L. Sykes, M.T. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003354 unknown http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003354 article ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:30:14Z Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6–12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, according to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Norway The Needle ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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ftrepec |
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unknown |
description |
Understanding the effects of climate change on boreal forests which hold about 7% of the global terrestrial biomass carbon is a major issue. An important mechanism in boreal tree species is acclimatization to seasonal variations in temperature (cold hardiness) to withstand low temperatures during winter. Temperature drops below the hardiness level may cause frost damage. Increased climate variability under global and regional warming might lead to more severe frost damage events, with consequences for tree individuals, populations and ecosystems. We assessed the potential future impacts of changing frost regimes on Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) in Sweden. A cold hardiness and frost damage model were incorporated within a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS. The frost tolerance of Norway spruce was calculated based on daily mean temperature fluctuations, corresponding to time and temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjustments. The severity of frost damage was calculated as a growth-reducing factor when the minimum temperature was below the frost tolerance. The hardiness model was linked to the ecosystem model by reducing needle biomass and thereby growth according to the calculated severity of frost damage. A sensitivity analysis of the hardiness model revealed that the severity of frost events was significantly altered by variations in the hardening rate and dehardening rate during current climate conditions. The modelled occurrence and intensity of frost events was related to observed crown defoliation, indicating that 6–12% of the needle loss could be attributed to frost damage. When driving the combined ecosystem-hardiness model with future climate from a regional climate model (RCM), the results suggest a decreasing number and strength of extreme frost events particularly in northern Sweden and strongly increasing productivity for Norway spruce by the end of the 21st century as a result of longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, according to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rammig, A. Jönsson, A.M. Hickler, T. Smith, B. Bärring, L. Sykes, M.T. |
spellingShingle |
Rammig, A. Jönsson, A.M. Hickler, T. Smith, B. Bärring, L. Sykes, M.T. Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
author_facet |
Rammig, A. Jönsson, A.M. Hickler, T. Smith, B. Bärring, L. Sykes, M.T. |
author_sort |
Rammig, A. |
title |
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
title_short |
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
title_full |
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of changing frost regimes on Swedish forests: Incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
title_sort |
impacts of changing frost regimes on swedish forests: incorporating cold hardiness in a regional ecosystem model |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003354 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-64.047,-64.047,63.267,63.267) |
geographic |
Norway The Needle |
geographic_facet |
Norway The Needle |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003354 |
_version_ |
1796315444390395904 |