Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experim...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Report |
Language: | unknown |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/21089/ws1513.pdf?sequence=1 |
id |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws1513 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftrepec:oai:RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws1513 2024-04-14T08:01:20+00:00 Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Gómez, M. https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/21089/ws1513.pdf?sequence=1 unknown https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/21089/ws1513.pdf?sequence=1 preprint ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:39:42Z Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Watersheds at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual twostep approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to hard meteorological conditions. MCMC Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling Report Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Collins Glacier ENVELOPE(65.308,65.308,-73.829,-73.829) King George Island |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
op_collection_id |
ftrepec |
language |
unknown |
description |
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Watersheds at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual twostep approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to hard meteorological conditions. MCMC Bayesian inference Copulas Glacier discharge Seasonality Melt modelling |
format |
Report |
author |
Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Gómez, M. |
spellingShingle |
Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Gómez, M. Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
author_facet |
Ausín Olivera, María Concepción Domínguez, M. C. Gómez, M. |
author_sort |
Ausín Olivera, María Concepción |
title |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_short |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica |
title_sort |
seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at king george island, antarctica |
url |
https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/21089/ws1513.pdf?sequence=1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(65.308,65.308,-73.829,-73.829) |
geographic |
Collins Glacier King George Island |
geographic_facet |
Collins Glacier King George Island |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Collins Glacier King George Island |
op_relation |
https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/21089/ws1513.pdf?sequence=1 |
_version_ |
1796308419364257792 |