Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent
We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. The real-time forecasting begins in early June and proceeds through late September. We visually detail the evolutio...
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ftrepec:oai:RePEc:arx:papers:2101.10359 2024-04-14T08:06:38+00:00 Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Francis X. Diebold Maximilian Gobel http://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.10359 unknown http://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.10359 preprint ftrepec 2024-03-19T10:39:07Z We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. The real-time forecasting begins in early June and proceeds through late September. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Among other things, our visualizations may provide useful windows for assessing the agreement between dynamical climate models and observational data. Report Arctic Sea ice RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) |
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ftrepec |
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unknown |
description |
We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. The real-time forecasting begins in early June and proceeds through late September. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Among other things, our visualizations may provide useful windows for assessing the agreement between dynamical climate models and observational data. |
format |
Report |
author |
Francis X. Diebold Maximilian Gobel |
spellingShingle |
Francis X. Diebold Maximilian Gobel Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
author_facet |
Francis X. Diebold Maximilian Gobel |
author_sort |
Francis X. Diebold |
title |
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
title_short |
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
title_full |
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
title_fullStr |
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent |
title_sort |
real-time fixed-target statistical prediction of arctic sea ice extent |
url |
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.10359 |
geographic |
Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.10359 |
_version_ |
1796303698419253248 |