Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
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ftrboskovicinst:oai:fulir.irb.hr:2218 2023-05-15T16:35:26+02:00 Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjšček, Tin Lewis, Mark A. 2011 application/pdf http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/ http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/1/Molnar%2B2011_Polar%20bears_nature%20comm.pdf http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v2/n2/full/ncomms1183.html https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 en eng Nature Publishing Group: Nature Communications info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MZOS/ZP/098-0982934-2719 http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/ http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v2/n2/full/ncomms1183.html doi:10.1038/ncomms1183 http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/1/Molnar%2B2011_Polar%20bears_nature%20comm.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Nature Communications Biology Marine Science Environmental Science info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2011 ftrboskovicinst https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 2022-07-08T13:10:14Z Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Hudson Bay Sea ice Ruđer Bošković Institute Zagreb: Full-text Institutional Repository (FULIR) Hudson Hudson Bay Nature Communications 2 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Ruđer Bošković Institute Zagreb: Full-text Institutional Repository (FULIR) |
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ftrboskovicinst |
language |
English |
topic |
Biology Marine Science Environmental Science |
spellingShingle |
Biology Marine Science Environmental Science Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjšček, Tin Lewis, Mark A. Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
topic_facet |
Biology Marine Science Environmental Science |
description |
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjšček, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_facet |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjšček, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_sort |
Molnár, Péter K. |
title |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_short |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_fullStr |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_sort |
predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group: Nature Communications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/ http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/1/Molnar%2B2011_Polar%20bears_nature%20comm.pdf http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v2/n2/full/ncomms1183.html https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 |
geographic |
Hudson Hudson Bay |
geographic_facet |
Hudson Hudson Bay |
genre |
Hudson Bay Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Hudson Bay Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Communications |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MZOS/ZP/098-0982934-2719 http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/ http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v2/n2/full/ncomms1183.html doi:10.1038/ncomms1183 http://fulir.irb.hr/2218/1/Molnar%2B2011_Polar%20bears_nature%20comm.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
2 |
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1 |
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1766025663190401024 |