Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model...
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2022
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Online Access: | https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/297767752/swin_5.pdf |
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ftqueensubelpubl:oai:pure.qub.ac.uk/portal:publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e 2024-06-23T07:52:42+00:00 Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia Fewster, Richard E. Morris, Paul J. Ivanovic, Ruza F. Swindles, Graeme T. Peregon, Anna M. Smith, Christopher J. 2022-04 application/pdf https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/297767752/swin_5.pdf eng eng https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Fewster , R E , Morris , P J , Ivanovic , R F , Swindles , G T , Peregon , A M & Smith , C J 2022 , ' Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia ' , Nature Climate Change . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2022 ftqueensubelpubl https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 2024-06-11T14:30:54Z Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia Queen's University Belfast Research Portal Nature Climate Change |
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Open Polar |
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Queen's University Belfast Research Portal |
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ftqueensubelpubl |
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English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
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/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Fewster, Richard E. Morris, Paul J. Ivanovic, Ruza F. Swindles, Graeme T. Peregon, Anna M. Smith, Christopher J. Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fewster, Richard E. Morris, Paul J. Ivanovic, Ruza F. Swindles, Graeme T. Peregon, Anna M. Smith, Christopher J. |
author_facet |
Fewster, Richard E. Morris, Paul J. Ivanovic, Ruza F. Swindles, Graeme T. Peregon, Anna M. Smith, Christopher J. |
author_sort |
Fewster, Richard E. |
title |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_short |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_full |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_fullStr |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia |
title_sort |
imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in europe and western siberia |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/297767752/swin_5.pdf |
genre |
Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia permafrost Siberia |
op_source |
Fewster , R E , Morris , P J , Ivanovic , R F , Swindles , G T , Peregon , A M & Smith , C J 2022 , ' Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia ' , Nature Climate Change . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 , https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 |
op_relation |
https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/5a7924b2-71e3-4829-a162-c51e1ea9bd1e |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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1802644071085244416 |