Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort
Background /Aims. To evaluate the performance of existing prediction models to determine risk of progression to referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) using data from a prospective Irish cohort of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods. A cohort of 939 people with T2D followed prospectively was us...
Published in: | British Journal of Ophthalmology |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/3881839e-b287-4751-9d3a-d0924a8a1ca5 https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/429211175/Testing_the_performance_of_risk_prediction_models_to_determine_progression_to_referable_diabetic_retinopathy_in_an_Irish_type_2_diabetes_cohort.pdf |
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ftqueensubelpubl:oai:pure.qub.ac.uk/portal:publications/3881839e-b287-4751-9d3a-d0924a8a1ca5 2023-05-15T16:51:38+02:00 Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort Smith, John J. Wright, David M. Stratton, Irene M Scanlon, Peter Henry Lois, Noemi 2022-07-21 application/pdf https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/3881839e-b287-4751-9d3a-d0924a8a1ca5 https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/429211175/Testing_the_performance_of_risk_prediction_models_to_determine_progression_to_referable_diabetic_retinopathy_in_an_Irish_type_2_diabetes_cohort.pdf eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Smith , J J , Wright , D M , Stratton , I M , Scanlon , P H & Lois , N 2022 , ' Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort ' , British Journal of Ophthalmology , vol. 106 , no. 8 , pp. 1051-1056 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 Prediction models referable diabetic retinopathy sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy external validation area under the curve AUC receiver operating characteristics ROC diabetes risk diabetic retinopathy DR. /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being article 2022 ftqueensubelpubl https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 2023-03-16T23:19:53Z Background /Aims. To evaluate the performance of existing prediction models to determine risk of progression to referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) using data from a prospective Irish cohort of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods. A cohort of 939 people with T2D followed prospectively was used to test the performance of risk prediction models developed in Gloucester, United Kingdom, and Iceland. Observed risk of progression to RDR in the Irish cohort was compared with that derived from each of the prediction models evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed models’ performance. Results. The cohort was followed for a total of 2929 person years during which 2906 screening episodes occurred. Amongst 939 individuals followed, there were 40 referrals (4%) for diabetic maculopathy, pre-proliferative DR, and proliferative DR (PDR). The original Gloucester model, which includes results of two consecutive retinal screenings; a model incorporating, in addition, systemic biomarkers [glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and serum cholesterol]; and a model including results of one retinopathy screening, HbA1c, total cholesterol and duration of diabetes, had acceptable discriminatory power (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.69, 0.76 and 0.77, respectively). The Icelandic model, which combined retinopathy grading, duration and type of diabetes, HbA1c and systolic blood pressure, performed very similarly (AUC of 0.74). Conclusion. In an Irish cohort of people with T2D, the prediction models tested had an acceptable performance identifying those at risk of progression to RDR. These risk models would be useful in establishing more personalised screening intervals for people with T2D. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Queen's University Belfast Research Portal British Journal of Ophthalmology bjophthalmol-202 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Queen's University Belfast Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftqueensubelpubl |
language |
English |
topic |
Prediction models referable diabetic retinopathy sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy external validation area under the curve AUC receiver operating characteristics ROC diabetes risk diabetic retinopathy DR. /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
spellingShingle |
Prediction models referable diabetic retinopathy sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy external validation area under the curve AUC receiver operating characteristics ROC diabetes risk diabetic retinopathy DR. /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being Smith, John J. Wright, David M. Stratton, Irene M Scanlon, Peter Henry Lois, Noemi Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
topic_facet |
Prediction models referable diabetic retinopathy sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy external validation area under the curve AUC receiver operating characteristics ROC diabetes risk diabetic retinopathy DR. /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being |
description |
Background /Aims. To evaluate the performance of existing prediction models to determine risk of progression to referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) using data from a prospective Irish cohort of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods. A cohort of 939 people with T2D followed prospectively was used to test the performance of risk prediction models developed in Gloucester, United Kingdom, and Iceland. Observed risk of progression to RDR in the Irish cohort was compared with that derived from each of the prediction models evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed models’ performance. Results. The cohort was followed for a total of 2929 person years during which 2906 screening episodes occurred. Amongst 939 individuals followed, there were 40 referrals (4%) for diabetic maculopathy, pre-proliferative DR, and proliferative DR (PDR). The original Gloucester model, which includes results of two consecutive retinal screenings; a model incorporating, in addition, systemic biomarkers [glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and serum cholesterol]; and a model including results of one retinopathy screening, HbA1c, total cholesterol and duration of diabetes, had acceptable discriminatory power (area under the curve [AUC] of 0.69, 0.76 and 0.77, respectively). The Icelandic model, which combined retinopathy grading, duration and type of diabetes, HbA1c and systolic blood pressure, performed very similarly (AUC of 0.74). Conclusion. In an Irish cohort of people with T2D, the prediction models tested had an acceptable performance identifying those at risk of progression to RDR. These risk models would be useful in establishing more personalised screening intervals for people with T2D. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Smith, John J. Wright, David M. Stratton, Irene M Scanlon, Peter Henry Lois, Noemi |
author_facet |
Smith, John J. Wright, David M. Stratton, Irene M Scanlon, Peter Henry Lois, Noemi |
author_sort |
Smith, John J. |
title |
Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
title_short |
Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
title_full |
Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
title_fullStr |
Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
title_full_unstemmed |
Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
title_sort |
testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an irish type 2 diabetes cohort |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://pure.qub.ac.uk/en/publications/3881839e-b287-4751-9d3a-d0924a8a1ca5 https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 https://pureadmin.qub.ac.uk/ws/files/429211175/Testing_the_performance_of_risk_prediction_models_to_determine_progression_to_referable_diabetic_retinopathy_in_an_Irish_type_2_diabetes_cohort.pdf |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Smith , J J , Wright , D M , Stratton , I M , Scanlon , P H & Lois , N 2022 , ' Testing the performance of risk prediction models to determine progression to referable diabetic retinopathy in an Irish type 2 diabetes cohort ' , British Journal of Ophthalmology , vol. 106 , no. 8 , pp. 1051-1056 . https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1136/bjophthalmol-2020-318570 |
container_title |
British Journal of Ophthalmology |
container_start_page |
bjophthalmol-202 |
_version_ |
1766041762193735680 |