An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of...
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ftqueensland:oai:eprints.qut.edu.au:130821 2024-05-19T07:33:05+00:00 An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline Arzaghi, Esan Abbassi, Rouzbeh Garaniya, Vikram Khan, Faisal 2018 https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130821/ unknown Elsevier Inc. doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 Arzaghi, Esan, Abbassi, Rouzbeh, Garaniya, Vikram, & Khan, Faisal (2018) An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 135, pp. 1117-1127. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130821/ Science & Engineering Faculty Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au Marine Pollution Bulletin Contribution to Journal 2018 ftqueensland https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 2024-04-23T23:54:23Z There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Queensland University of Technology: QUT ePrints Marine Pollution Bulletin 135 1117 1127 |
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Open Polar |
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Queensland University of Technology: QUT ePrints |
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ftqueensland |
language |
unknown |
description |
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzaghi, Esan Abbassi, Rouzbeh Garaniya, Vikram Khan, Faisal |
spellingShingle |
Arzaghi, Esan Abbassi, Rouzbeh Garaniya, Vikram Khan, Faisal An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
author_facet |
Arzaghi, Esan Abbassi, Rouzbeh Garaniya, Vikram Khan, Faisal |
author_sort |
Arzaghi, Esan |
title |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_short |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_fullStr |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
title_sort |
ecological risk assessment model for arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline |
publisher |
Elsevier Inc. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130821/ |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean |
op_source |
Marine Pollution Bulletin |
op_relation |
doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 Arzaghi, Esan, Abbassi, Rouzbeh, Garaniya, Vikram, & Khan, Faisal (2018) An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 135, pp. 1117-1127. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130821/ Science & Engineering Faculty |
op_rights |
Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.08.030 |
container_title |
Marine Pollution Bulletin |
container_volume |
135 |
container_start_page |
1117 |
op_container_end_page |
1127 |
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1799471235282763776 |