A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines
The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more...
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ftqueensland:oai:eprints.qut.edu.au:130820 2024-04-28T08:09:06+00:00 A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines Arzaghi, Esan Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi Abbassi, Rouzbeh Binns, Jonathan Chin, Christopher Khan, Faisal 2018 https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130820/ unknown Institution of Chemical Engineers doi:10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 Arzaghi, Esan, Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi, Abbassi, Rouzbeh, Binns, Jonathan, Chin, Christopher, & Khan, Faisal (2018) A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 118, pp. 307-315. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130820/ Science & Engineering Faculty Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au Process Safety and Environmental Protection Contribution to Journal 2018 ftqueensland https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 2024-04-03T15:14:51Z The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more exploration activities will also increase the possibility of oil spill during the entire process including production and transport. A comprehensive risk assessment based on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) method is then required during the planning and operation stages of future Arctic oil production facilities. In the exposure analysis stage, ERA needs an evaluation of the oil concentration profile in all media. This paper presents a methodology for predicting the stochastic fate and transport of spilled oil in ice-infested regions. For this purpose, level IV fugacity models are used to estimate the time-variable concentration of oil. A hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) is adopted to estimate the probability of time to reach a concentration (TRTC) based on the observations made from a fugacity model. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a subsea pipeline accident resulting in the release of 100 t of Statfjord oil into the Labrador Sea is considered as the case study. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Labrador Sea Queensland University of Technology: QUT ePrints Process Safety and Environmental Protection 118 307 315 |
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Queensland University of Technology: QUT ePrints |
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ftqueensland |
language |
unknown |
description |
The significant increase in global energy demand has drawn the attention of oil and gas industries to exploration of less-exploited resources. Arctic offshore region is reported to hold a great proportion of un-discovered oil reserves. While this can be a promising opportunity for the industry, more exploration activities will also increase the possibility of oil spill during the entire process including production and transport. A comprehensive risk assessment based on Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) method is then required during the planning and operation stages of future Arctic oil production facilities. In the exposure analysis stage, ERA needs an evaluation of the oil concentration profile in all media. This paper presents a methodology for predicting the stochastic fate and transport of spilled oil in ice-infested regions. For this purpose, level IV fugacity models are used to estimate the time-variable concentration of oil. A hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) is adopted to estimate the probability of time to reach a concentration (TRTC) based on the observations made from a fugacity model. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a subsea pipeline accident resulting in the release of 100 t of Statfjord oil into the Labrador Sea is considered as the case study. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arzaghi, Esan Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi Abbassi, Rouzbeh Binns, Jonathan Chin, Christopher Khan, Faisal |
spellingShingle |
Arzaghi, Esan Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi Abbassi, Rouzbeh Binns, Jonathan Chin, Christopher Khan, Faisal A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
author_facet |
Arzaghi, Esan Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi Abbassi, Rouzbeh Binns, Jonathan Chin, Christopher Khan, Faisal |
author_sort |
Arzaghi, Esan |
title |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_short |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_full |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_fullStr |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_full_unstemmed |
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
title_sort |
hierarchical bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines |
publisher |
Institution of Chemical Engineers |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130820/ |
genre |
Arctic Labrador Sea |
genre_facet |
Arctic Labrador Sea |
op_source |
Process Safety and Environmental Protection |
op_relation |
doi:10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 Arzaghi, Esan, Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi, Abbassi, Rouzbeh, Binns, Jonathan, Chin, Christopher, & Khan, Faisal (2018) A hierarchical Bayesian approach to modelling fate and transport of oil released from subsea pipelines. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 118, pp. 307-315. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/130820/ Science & Engineering Faculty |
op_rights |
Consult author(s) regarding copyright matters This work is covered by copyright. Unless the document is being made available under a Creative Commons Licence, you must assume that re-use is limited to personal use and that permission from the copyright owner must be obtained for all other uses. If the document is available under a Creative Commons License (or other specified license) then refer to the Licence for details of permitted re-use. It is a condition of access that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. If you believe that this work infringes copyright please provide details by email to qut.copyright@qut.edu.au |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.06.023 |
container_title |
Process Safety and Environmental Protection |
container_volume |
118 |
container_start_page |
307 |
op_container_end_page |
315 |
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1797577554044911616 |