Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study
Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on str...
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ftqataruniv:oai:qspace.qu.edu.qa:10576/14437 2023-05-15T18:19:44+02:00 Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study Ferrarini A. Alsafran M.H.S.A. Dai J. Alatalo J.M. http://hdl.handle.net/10576/14437 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 en eng Springer Verlag 9307575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/14437 1413-1423 4-Mar 52 British Isles Climate extremes Climate-driven niche modelling Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection Article ftqataruniv https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 2022-07-13T15:15:44Z Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed. Scopus Article in Journal/Newspaper Silene acaulis Qatar University: QU Institutional Repository Climate Dynamics 52 3-4 1413 1423 |
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Qatar University: QU Institutional Repository |
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ftqataruniv |
language |
English |
topic |
British Isles Climate extremes Climate-driven niche modelling Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection |
spellingShingle |
British Isles Climate extremes Climate-driven niche modelling Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection Ferrarini A. Alsafran M.H.S.A. Dai J. Alatalo J.M. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
topic_facet |
British Isles Climate extremes Climate-driven niche modelling Model selection Parsimonious modelling Silene acaulis Variable ranking Variable selection |
description |
Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed. Scopus |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ferrarini A. Alsafran M.H.S.A. Dai J. Alatalo J.M. |
author_facet |
Ferrarini A. Alsafran M.H.S.A. Dai J. Alatalo J.M. |
author_sort |
Ferrarini A. |
title |
Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
title_short |
Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
title_full |
Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
title_fullStr |
Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study |
title_sort |
improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: silene acaulis on the british isles as a case study |
publisher |
Springer Verlag |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10576/14437 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 |
genre |
Silene acaulis |
genre_facet |
Silene acaulis |
op_relation |
9307575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 http://hdl.handle.net/10576/14437 1413-1423 4-Mar 52 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4200-9 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
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52 |
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3-4 |
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1413 |
op_container_end_page |
1423 |
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1766196951737434112 |