Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior
Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9944908 2023-05-15T17:30:35+02:00 Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior Tjiputra, Jerry F. Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are 2023-02-21 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9944908/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36810764 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9944908/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36810764 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Sci Rep Article Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 2023-02-26T01:54:40Z Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. Text North Atlantic Southern Ocean PubMed Central (PMC) Southern Ocean Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Article Tjiputra, Jerry F. Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
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Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. |
format |
Text |
author |
Tjiputra, Jerry F. Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are |
author_facet |
Tjiputra, Jerry F. Negrel, Jean Olsen, Are |
author_sort |
Tjiputra, Jerry F. |
title |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_short |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_fullStr |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_sort |
early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9944908/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36810764 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
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Southern Ocean |
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Southern Ocean |
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North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
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North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
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Sci Rep |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9944908/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36810764 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
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