Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss
Future projections of ice sheets in response to different climate scenarios and their associated contributions to sea level changes are subject to deep uncertainty due to ice sheet instability processes, hampering a proper risk assessment of sea level rise and enaction of mitigation/adaptation strat...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9931235 2023-05-15T13:38:47+02:00 Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss Li, Dawei DeConto, Robert M. Pollard, David 2023-02-15 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9931235/ https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9931235/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Sci Adv Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 2023-02-19T02:15:16Z Future projections of ice sheets in response to different climate scenarios and their associated contributions to sea level changes are subject to deep uncertainty due to ice sheet instability processes, hampering a proper risk assessment of sea level rise and enaction of mitigation/adaptation strategies. For a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty due to climate model fields used as input to the ice sheet models, we drive a three-dimensional model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) with the output from 36 climate models to simulate past and future changes in the AIS. Simulations show that a few climate models result in partial collapse of the West AIS under modeled preindustrial climates, and the spread in future changes in the AIS’s volume is comparable to the structural uncertainty originating from differing ice sheet models. These results highlight the need for improved representations of physical processes important for polar climate in climate models. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic The Antarctic Science Advances 9 7 |
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English |
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Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences |
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Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences Li, Dawei DeConto, Robert M. Pollard, David Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
topic_facet |
Earth Environmental Ecological and Space Sciences |
description |
Future projections of ice sheets in response to different climate scenarios and their associated contributions to sea level changes are subject to deep uncertainty due to ice sheet instability processes, hampering a proper risk assessment of sea level rise and enaction of mitigation/adaptation strategies. For a systematic evaluation of the uncertainty due to climate model fields used as input to the ice sheet models, we drive a three-dimensional model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) with the output from 36 climate models to simulate past and future changes in the AIS. Simulations show that a few climate models result in partial collapse of the West AIS under modeled preindustrial climates, and the spread in future changes in the AIS’s volume is comparable to the structural uncertainty originating from differing ice sheet models. These results highlight the need for improved representations of physical processes important for polar climate in climate models. |
format |
Text |
author |
Li, Dawei DeConto, Robert M. Pollard, David |
author_facet |
Li, Dawei DeConto, Robert M. Pollard, David |
author_sort |
Li, Dawei |
title |
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
title_short |
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
title_full |
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss |
title_sort |
climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future antarctic ice loss |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9931235/ https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Sci Adv |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9931235/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add7082 |
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Science Advances |
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9 |
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7 |
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1766111031361273856 |