Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, th...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9918523 2023-05-15T17:57:44+02:00 Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Huntrieser, Heidi Jöckel, Patrick 2023-02-10 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9918523/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36765048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9918523/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36765048 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 2023-02-19T01:40:21Z Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change. Text permafrost PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 14 1 |
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Article Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Huntrieser, Heidi Jöckel, Patrick Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
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Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Huntrieser, Heidi Jöckel, Patrick |
author_facet |
Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. Huntrieser, Heidi Jöckel, Patrick |
author_sort |
Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. |
title |
Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
title_short |
Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
title_full |
Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
title_sort |
variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9918523/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36765048 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 |
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permafrost |
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permafrost |
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Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9918523/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36765048 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 |
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Nature Communications |
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14 |
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