Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members
State-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9822909 2023-05-15T13:47:11+02:00 Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members Akiyoshi, Hideharu Kadowaki, Masanao Yamashita, Yousuke Nagatomo, Toshiharu 2023-01-06 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9822909/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36609500 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9822909/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36609500 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Sci Rep Article Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y 2023-01-15T01:39:26Z State-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s (1997, 2011 and 2020), despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980–1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion. Text Antarc* Antarctic Arctic PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Arctic Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Article Akiyoshi, Hideharu Kadowaki, Masanao Yamashita, Yousuke Nagatomo, Toshiharu Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
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Article |
description |
State-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s (1997, 2011 and 2020), despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980–1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion. |
format |
Text |
author |
Akiyoshi, Hideharu Kadowaki, Masanao Yamashita, Yousuke Nagatomo, Toshiharu |
author_facet |
Akiyoshi, Hideharu Kadowaki, Masanao Yamashita, Yousuke Nagatomo, Toshiharu |
author_sort |
Akiyoshi, Hideharu |
title |
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
title_short |
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
title_full |
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
title_fullStr |
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
title_sort |
dependence of column ozone on future odss and ghgs in the variability of 500-ensemble members |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9822909/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36609500 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y |
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Antarctic Arctic |
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Antarctic Arctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic Arctic |
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Sci Rep |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9822909/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36609500 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y |
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