Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane sho...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9812378 2023-05-15T17:32:54+02:00 Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja 2023-01-04 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Sci Adv Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 2023-01-22T01:47:51Z Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Science Advances 9 1 |
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English |
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Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences |
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Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
topic_facet |
Social and Interdisciplinary Sciences |
description |
Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses. |
format |
Text |
author |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_facet |
Otto, Christian Kuhla, Kilian Geiger, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Frieler, Katja |
author_sort |
Otto, Christian |
title |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_short |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_fullStr |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming |
title_sort |
better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from u.s. hurricanes under global warming |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Sci Adv |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9812378/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36598974 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616 |
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Science Advances |
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9 |
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1 |
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