Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9804621 2023-05-15T16:11:49+02:00 Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains Bradter, Ute Johnston, Alison Hochachka, Wesley M. Soultan, Alaaeldin Brommer, Jon E. Gaget, Elie Kålås, John Atle Lehikoinen, Aleksi Lindström, Åke Piirainen, Sirke Pavón‐Jordán, Diego Pärt, Tomas Øien, Ingar Jostein Sandercock, Brett K. 2022-08-14 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9804621/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899584 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 en eng John Wiley and Sons Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9804621/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899584 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Glob Chang Biol Research Articles Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 2023-01-08T02:00:58Z The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because ... Text Fennoscandia PubMed Central (PMC) Global Change Biology 28 21 6209 6227 |
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Research Articles |
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Research Articles Bradter, Ute Johnston, Alison Hochachka, Wesley M. Soultan, Alaaeldin Brommer, Jon E. Gaget, Elie Kålås, John Atle Lehikoinen, Aleksi Lindström, Åke Piirainen, Sirke Pavón‐Jordán, Diego Pärt, Tomas Øien, Ingar Jostein Sandercock, Brett K. Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
topic_facet |
Research Articles |
description |
The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Bradter, Ute Johnston, Alison Hochachka, Wesley M. Soultan, Alaaeldin Brommer, Jon E. Gaget, Elie Kålås, John Atle Lehikoinen, Aleksi Lindström, Åke Piirainen, Sirke Pavón‐Jordán, Diego Pärt, Tomas Øien, Ingar Jostein Sandercock, Brett K. |
author_facet |
Bradter, Ute Johnston, Alison Hochachka, Wesley M. Soultan, Alaaeldin Brommer, Jon E. Gaget, Elie Kålås, John Atle Lehikoinen, Aleksi Lindström, Åke Piirainen, Sirke Pavón‐Jordán, Diego Pärt, Tomas Øien, Ingar Jostein Sandercock, Brett K. |
author_sort |
Bradter, Ute |
title |
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
title_short |
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
title_full |
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
title_fullStr |
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
title_sort |
decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern european mountains |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9804621/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899584 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 |
genre |
Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia |
op_source |
Glob Chang Biol |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9804621/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899584 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 |
op_rights |
© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16355 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
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28 |
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21 |
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6209 |
op_container_end_page |
6227 |
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