Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy
During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand, and Vietnam successfully implemented an elimination strategy, enacting strict border control and periods of lockdowns to end community transmission. Atlantic Canada and Canada’s territories implem...
Published in: | Journal of Theoretical Biology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9794400/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9794400 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9794400 2023-05-15T16:52:06+02:00 Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy Hurford, Amy Martignoni, Maria M. Loredo-Osti, J.C. Anokye, Francis Arino, Julien Husain, Bilal Saleh Gaas, Brian Watmough, James 2022-12-28 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9794400/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 en eng The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9794400/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 © 2022 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. J Theor Biol Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 2023-01-01T01:47:52Z During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand, and Vietnam successfully implemented an elimination strategy, enacting strict border control and periods of lockdowns to end community transmission. Atlantic Canada and Canada’s territories implemented similar policies, and reported long periods with no community cases. In Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island a median of 80% or more of daily reported cases were travel-related from July 1, a=2020 to May 31, 2021. With increasing vaccination coverage, it may be appropriate to exit an elimination strategy, but most existing epidemiological frameworks are applicable only to situations where most cases occur in the community, and are not appropriate for regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. To inform the pandemic response in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy, we extend importation modelling to consider post-arrival travel restrictions, and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the local community. We find that shortly after the Omicron variant had begun spreading in Canada, the expected daily number of spillovers, infections spread to NL community members from travelers and their close contacts, was higher than any time previously in the pandemic. By December 24, 2021, the expected number of spillovers was 44% higher than the previous high, which occurred in late July 2021 shortly after travel restrictions were first relaxed. We develop a method to assess the characteristics of potential future community outbreaks in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy. We apply this method to predict the effect of variant and vaccination coverage on the size of hypothetical community outbreaks in Mount Pearl, a suburb of the St., John’s metropolitan area in NL. Our methodology can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when vaccine coverage is high in regions that have implemented an ... Text Iceland Newfoundland Prince Edward Island PubMed Central (PMC) Canada New Zealand Newfoundland Journal of Theoretical Biology 561 111378 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Article |
spellingShingle |
Article Hurford, Amy Martignoni, Maria M. Loredo-Osti, J.C. Anokye, Francis Arino, Julien Husain, Bilal Saleh Gaas, Brian Watmough, James Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries, such as Australia, China, Iceland, New Zealand, Thailand, and Vietnam successfully implemented an elimination strategy, enacting strict border control and periods of lockdowns to end community transmission. Atlantic Canada and Canada’s territories implemented similar policies, and reported long periods with no community cases. In Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island a median of 80% or more of daily reported cases were travel-related from July 1, a=2020 to May 31, 2021. With increasing vaccination coverage, it may be appropriate to exit an elimination strategy, but most existing epidemiological frameworks are applicable only to situations where most cases occur in the community, and are not appropriate for regions that have implemented an elimination strategy. To inform the pandemic response in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy, we extend importation modelling to consider post-arrival travel restrictions, and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions in the local community. We find that shortly after the Omicron variant had begun spreading in Canada, the expected daily number of spillovers, infections spread to NL community members from travelers and their close contacts, was higher than any time previously in the pandemic. By December 24, 2021, the expected number of spillovers was 44% higher than the previous high, which occurred in late July 2021 shortly after travel restrictions were first relaxed. We develop a method to assess the characteristics of potential future community outbreaks in regions that are implementing an elimination strategy. We apply this method to predict the effect of variant and vaccination coverage on the size of hypothetical community outbreaks in Mount Pearl, a suburb of the St., John’s metropolitan area in NL. Our methodology can be used to evaluate alternative plans to relax public health restrictions when vaccine coverage is high in regions that have implemented an ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Hurford, Amy Martignoni, Maria M. Loredo-Osti, J.C. Anokye, Francis Arino, Julien Husain, Bilal Saleh Gaas, Brian Watmough, James |
author_facet |
Hurford, Amy Martignoni, Maria M. Loredo-Osti, J.C. Anokye, Francis Arino, Julien Husain, Bilal Saleh Gaas, Brian Watmough, James |
author_sort |
Hurford, Amy |
title |
Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
title_short |
Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
title_full |
Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
title_fullStr |
Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
title_sort |
pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy |
publisher |
The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9794400/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 |
geographic |
Canada New Zealand Newfoundland |
geographic_facet |
Canada New Zealand Newfoundland |
genre |
Iceland Newfoundland Prince Edward Island |
genre_facet |
Iceland Newfoundland Prince Edward Island |
op_source |
J Theor Biol |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9794400/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 |
op_rights |
© 2022 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111378 |
container_title |
Journal of Theoretical Biology |
container_volume |
561 |
container_start_page |
111378 |
_version_ |
1766042234689421312 |