Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9759544 2023-05-15T14:46:40+02:00 Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories Cornish, S. B. Johnson, H. L. Mallett, R. D. C. Dörr, J. Kostov, Y. Richards, A. E. 2022-12-17 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9759544/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36528641 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9759544/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36528641 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 2022-12-25T01:41:25Z The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent explanation of both rise and fall is hitherto missing. Here, we investigate these driving factors through a simple linear model for ice production. We focus on the Kara and Laptev seas-sometimes referred to as Arctic “ice factories” for their outsized role in ice production, and train the model on internal variability across the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). The linear model is highly skilful at explaining internal variability and can also explain the forced rise-then-fall of ice production, providing insight into the competing drivers of change. We apply our linear model to the same climate variables from observation-based data; the resulting estimate of ice production over recent decades suggests that, just as in CESM-LE, we are currently passing the peak of ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas. Text Arctic laptev Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Nature Communications 13 1 |
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Article Cornish, S. B. Johnson, H. L. Mallett, R. D. C. Dörr, J. Kostov, Y. Richards, A. E. Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
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The volume, extent and age of Arctic sea ice is in decline, yet winter sea ice production appears to have been increasing, despite Arctic warming being most intense during winter. Previous work suggests that further warming will at some point lead to a decline in ice production, however a consistent explanation of both rise and fall is hitherto missing. Here, we investigate these driving factors through a simple linear model for ice production. We focus on the Kara and Laptev seas-sometimes referred to as Arctic “ice factories” for their outsized role in ice production, and train the model on internal variability across the Community Earth System Model’s Large Ensemble (CESM-LE). The linear model is highly skilful at explaining internal variability and can also explain the forced rise-then-fall of ice production, providing insight into the competing drivers of change. We apply our linear model to the same climate variables from observation-based data; the resulting estimate of ice production over recent decades suggests that, just as in CESM-LE, we are currently passing the peak of ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas. |
format |
Text |
author |
Cornish, S. B. Johnson, H. L. Mallett, R. D. C. Dörr, J. Kostov, Y. Richards, A. E. |
author_facet |
Cornish, S. B. Johnson, H. L. Mallett, R. D. C. Dörr, J. Kostov, Y. Richards, A. E. |
author_sort |
Cornish, S. B. |
title |
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
title_short |
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
title_full |
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
title_fullStr |
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories |
title_sort |
rise and fall of sea ice production in the arctic ocean’s ice factories |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9759544/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36528641 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 |
geographic |
Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic laptev Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic laptev Sea ice |
op_source |
Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9759544/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36528641 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6 |
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Nature Communications |
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13 |
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1 |
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