Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections
While climate models project that Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt will continue to accelerate with climate change, models exhibit limitations in capturing observed connections between GrIS melt and changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation. Here we impose observed Arctic winds in a fully-coup...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9663692 2023-05-15T14:55:16+02:00 Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections Topál, Dániel Ding, Qinghua Ballinger, Thomas J. Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Li, Zhe Pieczka, Ildikó 2022-11-14 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9663692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36376292 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9663692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36376292 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 2022-11-20T02:51:12Z While climate models project that Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt will continue to accelerate with climate change, models exhibit limitations in capturing observed connections between GrIS melt and changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation. Here we impose observed Arctic winds in a fully-coupled climate model with fixed anthropogenic forcing to quantify the influence of the rotational component of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability over the Arctic on the temperature field and the surface mass/energy balances through adiabatic processes. We show that recent changes involving mid-to-upper-tropospheric anticyclonic wind anomalies – linked with tropical forcing – explain half of the observed Greenland surface warming and ice loss acceleration since 1990, suggesting a pathway for large-scale winds to potentially enhance sea-level rise by ~0.2 mm/year per decade. We further reveal fingerprints of this observed teleconnection in paleo-reanalyses spanning the past 400 years, which heightens concern about model limitations to capture wind-driven adiabatic processes associated with GrIS melt. Text Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Greenland Nature Communications 13 1 |
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Article Topál, Dániel Ding, Qinghua Ballinger, Thomas J. Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Li, Zhe Pieczka, Ildikó Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
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While climate models project that Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt will continue to accelerate with climate change, models exhibit limitations in capturing observed connections between GrIS melt and changes in high-latitude atmospheric circulation. Here we impose observed Arctic winds in a fully-coupled climate model with fixed anthropogenic forcing to quantify the influence of the rotational component of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability over the Arctic on the temperature field and the surface mass/energy balances through adiabatic processes. We show that recent changes involving mid-to-upper-tropospheric anticyclonic wind anomalies – linked with tropical forcing – explain half of the observed Greenland surface warming and ice loss acceleration since 1990, suggesting a pathway for large-scale winds to potentially enhance sea-level rise by ~0.2 mm/year per decade. We further reveal fingerprints of this observed teleconnection in paleo-reanalyses spanning the past 400 years, which heightens concern about model limitations to capture wind-driven adiabatic processes associated with GrIS melt. |
format |
Text |
author |
Topál, Dániel Ding, Qinghua Ballinger, Thomas J. Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Li, Zhe Pieczka, Ildikó |
author_facet |
Topál, Dániel Ding, Qinghua Ballinger, Thomas J. Hanna, Edward Fettweis, Xavier Li, Zhe Pieczka, Ildikó |
author_sort |
Topál, Dániel |
title |
Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
title_short |
Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
title_full |
Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
title_fullStr |
Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven Greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
title_sort |
discrepancies between observations and climate models of large-scale wind-driven greenland melt influence sea-level rise projections |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9663692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36376292 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9663692/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36376292 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34414-2 |
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Nature Communications |
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13 |
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