Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr
The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Tr...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9468010 2023-05-15T13:41:54+02:00 Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr Baldovin, Marco Cecconi, Fabio Provenzale, Antonello Vulpiani, Angelo 2022-09-12 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9468010/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36097179 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9468010/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36097179 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Sci Rep Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 2022-09-18T00:45:39Z The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO[Formula: see text] concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO[Formula: see text] concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO[Formula: see text] variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO[Formula: see text] concentration. Text Antarc* Antarctic ice core PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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Article Baldovin, Marco Cecconi, Fabio Provenzale, Antonello Vulpiani, Angelo Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
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Article |
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The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation–Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO[Formula: see text] concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO[Formula: see text] concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO[Formula: see text] variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO[Formula: see text] concentration. |
format |
Text |
author |
Baldovin, Marco Cecconi, Fabio Provenzale, Antonello Vulpiani, Angelo |
author_facet |
Baldovin, Marco Cecconi, Fabio Provenzale, Antonello Vulpiani, Angelo |
author_sort |
Baldovin, Marco |
title |
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
title_short |
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
title_full |
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
title_fullStr |
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
title_sort |
extracting causation from millennial-scale climate fluctuations in the last 800 kyr |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9468010/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36097179 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
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Antarctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic ice core |
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Antarc* Antarctic ice core |
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Sci Rep |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9468010/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36097179 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18406-2 |
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Scientific Reports |
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