Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales
The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9457383/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037334 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9457383 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9457383 2023-05-15T14:57:12+02:00 Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales Liu, Zhongfang Risi, Camille Codron, Francis Jian, Zhimin Wei, Zhongwang He, Xiaogang Poulsen, Christopher J. Wang, Yue Chen, Dong Ma, Wentao Cheng, Yanyan Bowen, Gabriel J. 2022-08-29 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9457383/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037334 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9457383/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037334 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . CC-BY-NC-ND Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 2023-03-05T01:46:52Z The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. Text Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Kara Sea Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 36 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Physical Sciences Liu, Zhongfang Risi, Camille Codron, Francis Jian, Zhimin Wei, Zhongwang He, Xiaogang Poulsen, Christopher J. Wang, Yue Chen, Dong Ma, Wentao Cheng, Yanyan Bowen, Gabriel J. Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
topic_facet |
Physical Sciences |
description |
The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. |
format |
Text |
author |
Liu, Zhongfang Risi, Camille Codron, Francis Jian, Zhimin Wei, Zhongwang He, Xiaogang Poulsen, Christopher J. Wang, Yue Chen, Dong Ma, Wentao Cheng, Yanyan Bowen, Gabriel J. |
author_facet |
Liu, Zhongfang Risi, Camille Codron, Francis Jian, Zhimin Wei, Zhongwang He, Xiaogang Poulsen, Christopher J. Wang, Yue Chen, Dong Ma, Wentao Cheng, Yanyan Bowen, Gabriel J. |
author_sort |
Liu, Zhongfang |
title |
Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
title_short |
Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
title_full |
Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
title_sort |
atmospheric forcing dominates winter barents-kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9457383/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037334 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9457383/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037334 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120770119 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
36 |
_version_ |
1766329289258565632 |