Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic
Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Al...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9150690 2023-05-15T17:38:22+02:00 Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic Jenkins, Tom L. Stevens, Jamie R. 2022-05-27 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9150690/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35651748 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 en eng PeerJ Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9150690/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35651748 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 © 2022 Jenkins and Stevens https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. CC-BY PeerJ Biogeography Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 2022-06-05T01:09:22Z Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951–2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081–2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region. Text North East Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Norway PeerJ 10 e13509 |
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Biogeography |
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Biogeography Jenkins, Tom L. Stevens, Jamie R. Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
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Biogeography |
description |
Species distribution models have become a valuable tool to predict the distribution of species across geographic space and time. In this study, maximum entropy models were constructed for two temperate shallow-water octocoral species, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) and dead man’s fingers (Alcyonium digitatum), to investigate and compare habitat suitability. The study area covered the north-east Atlantic from the Bay of Biscay to the British Isles and southern Norway; this area includes both the northern range of E. verrucosa and the middle-northern range of A. digitatum. The optimal models for each species showed that, overall, slope, temperature at the seafloor and wave orbital velocity were important predictors of distribution in both species. Predictions of habitat suitability showed areas of present-day (1951–2000) suitable habitat where colonies have not yet been observed, particularly for E. verrucosa, where areas beyond its known northern range limit were identified. Moreover, analysis with future layers (2081–2100) of temperature and oxygen concentration predicted a sizable increase in habitat suitability for E. verrucosa beyond these current range limits under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. This suggests that projected climate change may induce a potential range expansion northward for E. verrucosa, although successful colonisation would also be conditional on other factors such as dispersal and interspecific competition. For A. digitatum, this scenario of projected climate change may result in more suitable habitat in higher latitudes, but, as with E. verrucosa, there is a degree of uncertainty in the model predictions. Importantly, the results from this study highlight present-day areas of high habitat suitability which, if combined with knowledge on population density, could be used to identify priority areas to enhance protection and ensure the long-term survival of these octocoral species in the region. |
format |
Text |
author |
Jenkins, Tom L. Stevens, Jamie R. |
author_facet |
Jenkins, Tom L. Stevens, Jamie R. |
author_sort |
Jenkins, Tom L. |
title |
Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
title_short |
Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
title_full |
Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east Atlantic |
title_sort |
predicting habitat suitability and range shifts under projected climate change for two octocorals in the north-east atlantic |
publisher |
PeerJ Inc. |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9150690/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35651748 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 |
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Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
North East Atlantic |
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North East Atlantic |
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PeerJ |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9150690/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35651748 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 |
op_rights |
© 2022 Jenkins and Stevens https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13509 |
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