Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study
BACKGROUND: Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of th...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9130454 2023-05-15T15:16:32+02:00 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. 2022-05-25 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130454/ https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 en eng BioMed Central http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130454/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. CC0 PDM CC-BY BMC Public Health Research Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 2022-05-29T00:47:31Z BACKGROUND: Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks. METHODS: We used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals. RESULTS: We found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015—5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880—4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593—2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798—15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222—265) even in the absence of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. ... Text Arctic Nunavut PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Canada Nunavut BMC Public Health 22 1 |
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Research Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
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Research |
description |
BACKGROUND: Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks. METHODS: We used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals. RESULTS: We found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015—5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880—4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593—2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798—15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222—265) even in the absence of NPIs. CONCLUSIONS: NPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. |
author_facet |
Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. |
author_sort |
Vilches, Thomas N. |
title |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_short |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_full |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_fullStr |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_sort |
impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on covid-19 outbreaks in nunavut, canada: a canadian immunization research network (cirn) study |
publisher |
BioMed Central |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130454/ https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Nunavut |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Nunavut |
genre |
Arctic Nunavut |
genre_facet |
Arctic Nunavut |
op_source |
BMC Public Health |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9130454/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
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CC0 PDM CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 |
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BMC Public Health |
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22 |
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