Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19
To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based o...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9085796 2023-05-15T16:50:20+02:00 Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner 2022-05-09 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9085796/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35534516 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9085796/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35534516 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Sci Rep Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x 2022-05-15T00:53:59Z To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of [Formula: see text] countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs. Text Iceland PubMed Central (PMC) New Zealand Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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Article Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
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Article |
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To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of [Formula: see text] countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs. |
format |
Text |
author |
Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner |
author_facet |
Banholzer, Nicolas Feuerriegel, Stefan Vach, Werner |
author_sort |
Banholzer, Nicolas |
title |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_short |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_full |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 |
title_sort |
estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during covid-19 |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9085796/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35534516 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x |
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New Zealand |
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New Zealand |
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Iceland |
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Iceland |
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Sci Rep |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9085796/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35534516 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11362-x |
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