Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic prec...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:9021187 2023-05-15T16:59:11+02:00 Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes Ardid, Alberto Dempsey, David Caudron, Corentin Cronin, Shane 2022-04-20 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021187/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443758 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021187/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2022 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y 2022-05-01T00:33:51Z Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. Text Kamchatka Alaska PubMed Central (PMC) New Zealand Nature Communications 13 1 |
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Article Ardid, Alberto Dempsey, David Caudron, Corentin Cronin, Shane Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
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description |
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5–8 Hz) and high (8–16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes. |
format |
Text |
author |
Ardid, Alberto Dempsey, David Caudron, Corentin Cronin, Shane |
author_facet |
Ardid, Alberto Dempsey, David Caudron, Corentin Cronin, Shane |
author_sort |
Ardid, Alberto |
title |
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_short |
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_full |
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_fullStr |
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
title_sort |
seismic precursors to the whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021187/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443758 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
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New Zealand |
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New Zealand |
genre |
Kamchatka Alaska |
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Kamchatka Alaska |
op_source |
Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9021187/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35443758 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y |
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Nature Communications |
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13 |
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