Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all cause mortality...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8564739 2023-05-15T16:49:37+02:00 Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben 2021-11-03 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8564739/ https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 en eng BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8564739/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY BMJ Research Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 2021-11-07T01:58:33Z OBJECTIVE: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. RESULTS: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence ... Text Iceland PubMed Central (PMC) New Zealand Norway BMJ e066768 |
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Research Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
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Research |
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. RESULTS: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben |
author_facet |
Islam, Nazrul Jdanov, Dmitri A Shkolnikov, Vladimir M Khunti, Kamlesh Kawachi, Ichiro White, Martin Lewington, Sarah Lacey, Ben |
author_sort |
Islam, Nazrul |
title |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_short |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_fullStr |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
title_sort |
effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries |
publisher |
BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8564739/ https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 |
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New Zealand Norway |
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New Zealand Norway |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8564739/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 |
op_rights |
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2021-066768 |
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