Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century
Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warm...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8531109 2023-05-15T13:15:02+02:00 Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi 2021-07-22 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531109/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 en eng Springer Berlin Heidelberg http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531109/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Clim Dyn Article Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 2021-11-07T01:39:47Z Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations. Text aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Pacific Climate Dynamics 57 11-12 3223 3243 |
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Article Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
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Article |
description |
Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations. |
format |
Text |
author |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi |
author_facet |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi |
author_sort |
Svendsen, Lea |
title |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_short |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_full |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_fullStr |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_sort |
pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the arctic during the twentieth century |
publisher |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531109/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic |
op_source |
Clim Dyn |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8531109/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 |
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Climate Dynamics |
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57 |
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11-12 |
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