Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling
Permafrost has been warming in the last decade at rates up to 0.39 °C 10 year(−1), raising public concerns about the local and global impacts, such as methane emission. We used satellite data on atmospheric methane concentrations to retrieve information about methane emission in permafrost and non-p...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8497670 2023-05-15T17:55:53+02:00 Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling Anisimov, Oleg Zimov, Sergei 2020-11-02 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8497670/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33140207 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y en eng Springer Netherlands http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8497670/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33140207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2020 Ambio Siberian Environmental Change Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y 2022-11-06T01:30:31Z Permafrost has been warming in the last decade at rates up to 0.39 °C 10 year(−1), raising public concerns about the local and global impacts, such as methane emission. We used satellite data on atmospheric methane concentrations to retrieve information about methane emission in permafrost and non-permafrost environments in Siberia with different biogeochemical conditions in river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands. We evaluated the statistical links with air temperature, precipitation, depth of seasonal thawing, and freezing and developed a statistical model. We demonstrated that by the mid-21st century methane emission in Siberian permafrost regions will increase by less than 20 Tg year(−1), which is at the lower end of other estimates. Such changes will lead to less than 0.02 °C global temperature rise. These findings do not support the “methane bomb” concept. They demonstrate that the feedback between thawing Siberian wetlands and the global climate has been significantly overestimated. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text permafrost Thermokarst Siberia PubMed Central (PMC) Ambio 50 11 2050 2059 |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Siberian Environmental Change |
spellingShingle |
Siberian Environmental Change Anisimov, Oleg Zimov, Sergei Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
topic_facet |
Siberian Environmental Change |
description |
Permafrost has been warming in the last decade at rates up to 0.39 °C 10 year(−1), raising public concerns about the local and global impacts, such as methane emission. We used satellite data on atmospheric methane concentrations to retrieve information about methane emission in permafrost and non-permafrost environments in Siberia with different biogeochemical conditions in river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands. We evaluated the statistical links with air temperature, precipitation, depth of seasonal thawing, and freezing and developed a statistical model. We demonstrated that by the mid-21st century methane emission in Siberian permafrost regions will increase by less than 20 Tg year(−1), which is at the lower end of other estimates. Such changes will lead to less than 0.02 °C global temperature rise. These findings do not support the “methane bomb” concept. They demonstrate that the feedback between thawing Siberian wetlands and the global climate has been significantly overestimated. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format |
Text |
author |
Anisimov, Oleg Zimov, Sergei |
author_facet |
Anisimov, Oleg Zimov, Sergei |
author_sort |
Anisimov, Oleg |
title |
Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
title_short |
Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
title_full |
Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
title_fullStr |
Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
title_sort |
thawing permafrost and methane emission in siberia: synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling |
publisher |
Springer Netherlands |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8497670/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33140207 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y |
genre |
permafrost Thermokarst Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Thermokarst Siberia |
op_source |
Ambio |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8497670/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33140207 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y |
op_rights |
© Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2020 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01392-y |
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Ambio |
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50 |
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11 |
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2050 |
op_container_end_page |
2059 |
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1766163905532395520 |