Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)
The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term...
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Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366891/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34429922 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 |
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8366891 2023-05-15T13:33:11+02:00 Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) Volzke, Sophia McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Burton, Harry R. Wotherspoon, Simon J. 2021-07-27 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366891/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34429922 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 en eng John Wiley and Sons Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366891/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34429922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Ecol Evol Original Research Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 2021-08-29T00:29:28Z The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long‐term mark‐recapture studies (1956–1967 and 1993–2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9‐state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year's SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population. Text Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Soi ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) Southern Ocean Ecology and Evolution 11 16 11333 11344 |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
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English |
topic |
Original Research |
spellingShingle |
Original Research Volzke, Sophia McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Burton, Harry R. Wotherspoon, Simon J. Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
topic_facet |
Original Research |
description |
The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long‐term mark‐recapture studies (1956–1967 and 1993–2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9‐state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year's SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population. |
format |
Text |
author |
Volzke, Sophia McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Burton, Harry R. Wotherspoon, Simon J. |
author_facet |
Volzke, Sophia McMahon, Clive R. Hindell, Mark A. Burton, Harry R. Wotherspoon, Simon J. |
author_sort |
Volzke, Sophia |
title |
Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
title_short |
Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
title_full |
Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
title_fullStr |
Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) |
title_sort |
climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (mirounga leonina) |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366891/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34429922 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(30.704,30.704,66.481,66.481) |
geographic |
Antarctic Soi Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Soi Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Elephant Seals Macquarie Island Mirounga leonina Sea ice Southern Elephant Seals Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Ecol Evol |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8366891/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34429922 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 |
op_rights |
© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7919 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
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11 |
container_issue |
16 |
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11333 |
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11344 |
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