Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogen...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8277888 2023-05-15T17:32:41+02:00 Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas 2021-07-13 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34257285 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34257285 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 2021-07-25T00:31:53Z Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Article Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
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Article |
description |
Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency. |
format |
Text |
author |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas |
author_facet |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. Landsea, Christopher Zhang, Wei Villarini, Gabriele Knutson, Thomas |
author_sort |
Vecchi, Gabriel A. |
title |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_short |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_full |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_fullStr |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
title_sort |
changes in atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34257285 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
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Nat Commun |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8277888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34257285 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5 |
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Nature Communications |
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12 |
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1 |
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