Improved simulation of 19th- and 20th-century North Atlantic hurricane frequency after correcting historical sea surface temperatures

• Published in: Science Advances
• Main Authors: Chan, Duo, Vecchi, Gabriel A., Yang, Wenchang, Huybers, Peter
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2021
• Subjects: Research Articles; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8232916/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34172449; https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg6931

Confidence in dynamical and statistical hurricane prediction is rooted in the skillful reproduction of hurricane frequency using sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, but an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric simulation extending to the 1880s indicates model-data disagreements that exceed those expected from documented uncertainties. We apply recently developed corrections for biases in historical SSTs that lead to revisions in tropical to subtropical SST gradients by ±0.1°C. Revised atmospheric simulations have 20% adjustments in the decadal variations of hurricane frequency and become more consistent with observations. The improved simulation skill from revised SST estimates not only supports the utility of high-resolution atmospheric models for hurricane projections but also highlights the need for accurate estimates of past and future patterns of SST changes.