Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales
Skillful near-term climate predictions of rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Asian water tower, benefit billions of people. On the basis of the state-of-the-art decadal prediction models, we showed evidence that although the raw model outputs show low predicted ability for the summer Inner...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8189591 2023-05-15T17:32:50+02:00 Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales Hu, Shuai Zhou, Tianjun 2021-06-09 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8189591/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34108212 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8189591/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34108212 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY-NC Sci Adv Research Articles Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 2021-06-27T00:26:20Z Skillful near-term climate predictions of rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Asian water tower, benefit billions of people. On the basis of the state-of-the-art decadal prediction models, we showed evidence that although the raw model outputs show low predicted ability for the summer Inner TP (ITP) rainfall due to low signal-to-noise ratios in models, we can produce realistic predictions by extracting the predictable signal from large ensemble predictions along with a postprocessing procedure of variance adjustment. The results indicate that the summer ITP rainfall is highly predictable on multiyear time scales. The predictability of ITP rainfall originates from the Silk Road pattern driven by sea surface temperature over the subpolar gyre region in North Atlantic. Real-time forecasts suggest that the ITP will become wetter, with 12.8% increase in rainfall during 2020–2027 relative to 1986–2005. Our results will help the water resources management in the surrounding regions. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Science Advances 7 24 eabf9395 |
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Research Articles Hu, Shuai Zhou, Tianjun Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
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Research Articles |
description |
Skillful near-term climate predictions of rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Asian water tower, benefit billions of people. On the basis of the state-of-the-art decadal prediction models, we showed evidence that although the raw model outputs show low predicted ability for the summer Inner TP (ITP) rainfall due to low signal-to-noise ratios in models, we can produce realistic predictions by extracting the predictable signal from large ensemble predictions along with a postprocessing procedure of variance adjustment. The results indicate that the summer ITP rainfall is highly predictable on multiyear time scales. The predictability of ITP rainfall originates from the Silk Road pattern driven by sea surface temperature over the subpolar gyre region in North Atlantic. Real-time forecasts suggest that the ITP will become wetter, with 12.8% increase in rainfall during 2020–2027 relative to 1986–2005. Our results will help the water resources management in the surrounding regions. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hu, Shuai Zhou, Tianjun |
author_facet |
Hu, Shuai Zhou, Tianjun |
author_sort |
Hu, Shuai |
title |
Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
title_short |
Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
title_full |
Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
title_fullStr |
Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales |
title_sort |
skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the tibetan plateau on multiyear time scales |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8189591/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34108212 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 |
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North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Sci Adv |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8189591/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34108212 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf9395 |
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Science Advances |
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7 |
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24 |
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