Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef
On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effecti...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:8080001 2023-05-15T17:51:23+02:00 Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef Condie, Scott A. Anthony, Kenneth R. N. Babcock, Russ C. Baird, Mark E. Beeden, Roger Fletcher, Cameron S. Gorton, Rebecca Harrison, Daniel Hobday, Alistair J. Plagányi, Éva E. Westcott, David A. 2021-04-28 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 en eng The Royal Society http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. CC-BY R Soc Open Sci Ecology Conservation and Global Change Biology Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 2021-05-23T00:23:12Z On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades. Text Ocean acidification PubMed Central (PMC) Royal Society Open Science 8 4 |
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language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Conservation and Global Change Biology |
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Ecology Conservation and Global Change Biology Condie, Scott A. Anthony, Kenneth R. N. Babcock, Russ C. Baird, Mark E. Beeden, Roger Fletcher, Cameron S. Gorton, Rebecca Harrison, Daniel Hobday, Alistair J. Plagányi, Éva E. Westcott, David A. Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
topic_facet |
Ecology Conservation and Global Change Biology |
description |
On the iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the cumulative impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves and regular outbreaks of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) have severely depleted coral cover. Climate change will further exacerbate this situation over the coming decades unless effective interventions are implemented. Evaluating the efficacy of alternative interventions in a complex system experiencing major cumulative impacts can only be achieved through a systems modelling approach. We have evaluated combinations of interventions using a coral reef meta-community model. The model consisted of a dynamic network of 3753 reefs supporting communities of corals and CoTS connected through ocean larval dispersal, and exposed to changing regimes of tropical cyclones, flood plumes, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification. Interventions included reducing flood plume impacts, expanding control of CoTS populations, stabilizing coral rubble, managing solar radiation and introducing heat-tolerant coral strains. Without intervention, all climate scenarios resulted in precipitous declines in GBR coral cover over the next 50 years. The most effective strategies in delaying decline were combinations that protected coral from both predation (CoTS control) and thermal stress (solar radiation management) deployed at large scale. Successful implementation could expand opportunities for climate action, natural adaptation and socioeconomic adjustment by at least one to two decades. |
format |
Text |
author |
Condie, Scott A. Anthony, Kenneth R. N. Babcock, Russ C. Baird, Mark E. Beeden, Roger Fletcher, Cameron S. Gorton, Rebecca Harrison, Daniel Hobday, Alistair J. Plagányi, Éva E. Westcott, David A. |
author_facet |
Condie, Scott A. Anthony, Kenneth R. N. Babcock, Russ C. Baird, Mark E. Beeden, Roger Fletcher, Cameron S. Gorton, Rebecca Harrison, Daniel Hobday, Alistair J. Plagányi, Éva E. Westcott, David A. |
author_sort |
Condie, Scott A. |
title |
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
title_short |
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
title_full |
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
title_fullStr |
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-scale interventions may delay decline of the Great Barrier Reef |
title_sort |
large-scale interventions may delay decline of the great barrier reef |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_source |
R Soc Open Sci |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8080001/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34007456 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 |
op_rights |
© 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201296 |
container_title |
Royal Society Open Science |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1766158520991875072 |