Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity
The Antarctic sea ice area expanded significantly during 1979–2015. This is at odds with state-of-the-art climate models, which typically simulate a receding Antarctic sea ice cover in response to increasing greenhouse forcing. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that this discrepancy between models...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7887216/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33594079 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7887216 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7887216 2023-05-15T14:05:14+02:00 Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity Sun, Shantong Eisenman, Ian 2021-02-16 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7887216/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33594079 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7887216/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33594079 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z 2021-03-07T01:38:02Z The Antarctic sea ice area expanded significantly during 1979–2015. This is at odds with state-of-the-art climate models, which typically simulate a receding Antarctic sea ice cover in response to increasing greenhouse forcing. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that this discrepancy between models and observations occurs due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity. As a control we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, which has 40 realizations of past and future climate change that all undergo Antarctic sea ice retreat during recent decades. We modify CESM to replace the simulated sea ice velocity field with a satellite-derived estimate of the observed sea ice motion, and we simulate 3 realizations of recent climate change. We find that the Antarctic sea ice expands in all 3 of these realizations, with the simulated spatial structure of the expansion bearing resemblance to observations. The results suggest that the reason CESM has failed to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion is due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity, implying that an improved representation of sea ice motion is crucial for more accurate sea ice projections. Text Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic The Antarctic Nature Communications 12 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Article |
spellingShingle |
Article Sun, Shantong Eisenman, Ian Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
The Antarctic sea ice area expanded significantly during 1979–2015. This is at odds with state-of-the-art climate models, which typically simulate a receding Antarctic sea ice cover in response to increasing greenhouse forcing. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that this discrepancy between models and observations occurs due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity. As a control we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, which has 40 realizations of past and future climate change that all undergo Antarctic sea ice retreat during recent decades. We modify CESM to replace the simulated sea ice velocity field with a satellite-derived estimate of the observed sea ice motion, and we simulate 3 realizations of recent climate change. We find that the Antarctic sea ice expands in all 3 of these realizations, with the simulated spatial structure of the expansion bearing resemblance to observations. The results suggest that the reason CESM has failed to capture the observed Antarctic sea ice expansion is due to simulation biases in the sea ice drift velocity, implying that an improved representation of sea ice motion is crucial for more accurate sea ice projections. |
format |
Text |
author |
Sun, Shantong Eisenman, Ian |
author_facet |
Sun, Shantong Eisenman, Ian |
author_sort |
Sun, Shantong |
title |
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
title_short |
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
title_full |
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
title_fullStr |
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed Antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
title_sort |
observed antarctic sea ice expansion reproduced in a climate model after correcting biases in sea ice drift velocity |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7887216/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33594079 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7887216/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33594079 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21412-z |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766276980794195968 |