Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations
The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (S...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7881246 2023-05-15T16:41:05+02:00 Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations Wang, Jinping Church, John A. Zhang, Xuebin Chen, Xianyao 2021-02-12 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7881246/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579967 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7881246/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 © The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2021 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 2021-02-28T01:26:11Z The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21(st) century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions. Text Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 12 1 |
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Article Wang, Jinping Church, John A. Zhang, Xuebin Chen, Xianyao Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
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Article |
description |
The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21(st) century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wang, Jinping Church, John A. Zhang, Xuebin Chen, Xianyao |
author_facet |
Wang, Jinping Church, John A. Zhang, Xuebin Chen, Xianyao |
author_sort |
Wang, Jinping |
title |
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
title_short |
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
title_full |
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
title_fullStr |
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
title_sort |
reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7881246/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579967 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 |
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Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Nat Commun |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7881246/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33579967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2021 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21265-6 |
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Nature Communications |
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