Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios
While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objec...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7718109 2023-05-15T17:22:50+02:00 Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios Dougherty, Brendan P. Smith, Ben A. Carson, Carolee A. Ogden, Nicholas H. 2020-12-05 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7718109/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 en eng KeAi Publishing http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7718109/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 . Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. Infect Dis Model Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 2020-12-13T01:39:47Z While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community, considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), in specific provinces and Canada as a whole. We applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to all cases and deaths, as well as those representing the general community. Our second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR (mean = 1.38%) was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in Canada. Estimates were developed for the period from March 11th, 2020 to September 16th, 2020. Estimates of the percentage of cases reported (PrCR) and CFR varied spatially and temporally across Canada. For the majority of provinces, and for Canada as a whole, the PrCR increased through the early stages of the pandemic. The estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1% to 69.0% throughout the entire study period. Estimates were greater when considering only those data from outside of LTCFs. The estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07% on March 11th, 2020 to 2.00% on September 16th, 2020. Therefore, the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2% on September 16th. According to our analysis, some provinces, such as Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th, compared to British Columbia, Ontario, and Québec. This could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria, demographics, socioeconomic factors, race, and access to healthcare among the provinces. Further investigation into these factors could reveal differences among ... Text Newfoundland PubMed Central (PMC) British Columbia ENVELOPE(-125.003,-125.003,54.000,54.000) Canada Newfoundland Infectious Disease Modelling 6 123 132 |
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Article Dougherty, Brendan P. Smith, Ben A. Carson, Carolee A. Ogden, Nicholas H. Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
While surveillance can identify changes in COVID-19 transmission patterns over time and space, sections of the population at risk, and the efficacy of public health measures, reported cases of COVID-19 are generally understood to only capture a subset of the actual number of cases. Our primary objective was to estimate the percentage of cases reported in the general community, considered as those that occurred outside of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), in specific provinces and Canada as a whole. We applied a methodology using the delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to all cases and deaths, as well as those representing the general community. Our second objective was to assess whether the assumed CFR (mean = 1.38%) was appropriate for calculating underestimation of cases in Canada. Estimates were developed for the period from March 11th, 2020 to September 16th, 2020. Estimates of the percentage of cases reported (PrCR) and CFR varied spatially and temporally across Canada. For the majority of provinces, and for Canada as a whole, the PrCR increased through the early stages of the pandemic. The estimated PrCR in general community settings for all of Canada increased from 18.1% to 69.0% throughout the entire study period. Estimates were greater when considering only those data from outside of LTCFs. The estimated upper bound CFR in general community settings for all of Canada decreased from 9.07% on March 11th, 2020 to 2.00% on September 16th, 2020. Therefore, the true CFR in the general community in Canada was likely less than 2% on September 16th. According to our analysis, some provinces, such as Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Saskatchewan reported a greater percentage of cases as of September 16th, compared to British Columbia, Ontario, and Québec. This could be due to differences in testing rates and criteria, demographics, socioeconomic factors, race, and access to healthcare among the provinces. Further investigation into these factors could reveal differences among ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Dougherty, Brendan P. Smith, Ben A. Carson, Carolee A. Ogden, Nicholas H. |
author_facet |
Dougherty, Brendan P. Smith, Ben A. Carson, Carolee A. Ogden, Nicholas H. |
author_sort |
Dougherty, Brendan P. |
title |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_short |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_full |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_fullStr |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploring the percentage of COVID-19 cases reported in the community in Canada and associated case fatality ratios |
title_sort |
exploring the percentage of covid-19 cases reported in the community in canada and associated case fatality ratios |
publisher |
KeAi Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7718109/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-125.003,-125.003,54.000,54.000) |
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British Columbia Canada Newfoundland |
geographic_facet |
British Columbia Canada Newfoundland |
genre |
Newfoundland |
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Newfoundland |
op_source |
Infect Dis Model |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7718109/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 |
op_rights |
. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.008 |
container_title |
Infectious Disease Modelling |
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6 |
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123 |
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132 |
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1766109711794438144 |