The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction
This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7648626 2023-05-15T17:33:01+02:00 The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction Kueh, Mien-Tze Lin, Chuan-Yao 2020-11-06 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7648626/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33159097 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7648626/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33159097 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Sci Rep Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 2020-11-15T01:42:41Z This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major contributor to the heatwave over WE was AL. These causal relationships remained valid when the evolution of warm spells was considered. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts from the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) database captured the evolution of the warm spells over SC and WE up to 3 weeks in advance. However, the predictions of heatwave occurrence and significance for the two regions are unsatisfactory. BL and AL can be predicted 2 weeks in advance, resulting in the successful predictions of warm spells over SC and WE. Although variations in Azores High and NAO were captured in the forecasts, their contribution to the warm spells remains unclear. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation PubMed Central (PMC) Scientific Reports 10 1 |
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Article Kueh, Mien-Tze Lin, Chuan-Yao The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
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This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major contributor to the heatwave over WE was AL. These causal relationships remained valid when the evolution of warm spells was considered. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts from the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) database captured the evolution of the warm spells over SC and WE up to 3 weeks in advance. However, the predictions of heatwave occurrence and significance for the two regions are unsatisfactory. BL and AL can be predicted 2 weeks in advance, resulting in the successful predictions of warm spells over SC and WE. Although variations in Azores High and NAO were captured in the forecasts, their contribution to the warm spells remains unclear. |
format |
Text |
author |
Kueh, Mien-Tze Lin, Chuan-Yao |
author_facet |
Kueh, Mien-Tze Lin, Chuan-Yao |
author_sort |
Kueh, Mien-Tze |
title |
The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
title_short |
The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
title_full |
The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
title_fullStr |
The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction |
title_sort |
2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern europe and its extended-range prediction |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7648626/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33159097 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Sci Rep |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7648626/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33159097 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-76181-4 |
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Scientific Reports |
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10 |
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