Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice

Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global...

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Published in:Nature Communications
Main Authors: Wunderling, Nico, Willeit, Matteo, Donges, Jonathan F., Winkelmann, Ricarda
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Subjects:
Article
Antarctic
Arctic
Greenland
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
albedo
Antarc*
Global warming
Ice Sheet
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7591863/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33110092
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
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spelling ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7591863 2023-05-15T13:11:03+02:00 Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice Wunderling, Nico Willeit, Matteo Donges, Jonathan F. Winkelmann, Ricarda 2020-10-27 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7591863/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33110092 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7591863/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33110092 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Nat Commun Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 2020-11-15T01:29:42Z Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO(2) concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. Text albedo Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Global warming Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Arctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet Nature Communications 11 1
institution Open Polar
collection PubMed Central (PMC)
op_collection_id ftpubmed
language English
topic Article
spellingShingle Article
Wunderling, Nico
Willeit, Matteo
Donges, Jonathan F.
Winkelmann, Ricarda
Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
topic_facet Article
description Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO(2) concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.
format Text
author Wunderling, Nico
Willeit, Matteo
Donges, Jonathan F.
Winkelmann, Ricarda
author_facet Wunderling, Nico
Willeit, Matteo
Donges, Jonathan F.
Winkelmann, Ricarda
author_sort Wunderling, Nico
title Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
title_short Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
title_full Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
title_fullStr Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
title_full_unstemmed Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
title_sort global warming due to loss of large ice masses and arctic summer sea ice
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
publishDate 2020
url http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7591863/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33110092
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
geographic Antarctic
Arctic
Greenland
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
geographic_facet Antarctic
Arctic
Greenland
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
genre albedo
Antarc*
Antarctic
Arctic
Global warming
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Sea ice
genre_facet albedo
Antarc*
Antarctic
Arctic
Global warming
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Sea ice
op_source Nat Commun
op_relation http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7591863/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33110092
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
op_rights © The Author(s) 2020
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
op_rightsnorm CC-BY
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3
container_title Nature Communications
container_volume 11
container_issue 1
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