Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model
The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost includ...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7532133 2023-05-15T15:02:13+02:00 Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go 2020-10-02 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532133/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33088673 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 en eng Springer Berlin Heidelberg http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532133/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33088673 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Prog Earth Planet Sci Research Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 2020-10-25T00:20:03Z The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost including the Yedoma layer due to climate change and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The PDGEM includes the processes by which high-concentration GHGs (CO(2) and CH(4)) contained in the pores of the Yedoma layer are released directly by dynamic degradation, as well as the processes by which GHGs are released by the decomposition of organic matter in the Yedoma layer and other permafrost. Our model simulations show that the total GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario was estimated to be 31-63 PgC for CO(2) and 1261-2821 TgCH(4) for CH(4) (68(th) percentile of the perturbed model simulations, corresponding to a global average surface air temperature change of 0.05–0.11 °C), and 14-28 PgC for CO(2) and 618-1341 TgCH(4) for CH(4) (0.03–0.07 °C) in the RCP2.6 scenario. GHG emissions resulting from the dynamic degradation of the Yedoma layer were estimated to be less than 1% of the total emissions from the permafrost in both scenarios, possibly because of the small area ratio of the Yedoma layer. An advantage of PDGEM is that geographical distributions of GHG emissions can be estimated by combining a state-of-the-art land surface model featuring detailed physical processes with a GHG release model using a simple scheme, enabling us to consider a broad range of uncertainty regarding model parameters. In regions with large GHG emissions due to permafrost thawing, it may be possible to help reduce GHG emissions by taking measures such as restraining land development. [Image: see text] Text Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7 1 |
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Research Article Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
topic_facet |
Research Article |
description |
The Yedoma layer, a permafrost layer containing a massive amount of underground ice in the Arctic regions, is reported to be rapidly thawing. In this study, we develop the Permafrost Degradation and Greenhouse gasses Emission Model (PDGEM), which describes the thawing of the Arctic permafrost including the Yedoma layer due to climate change and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The PDGEM includes the processes by which high-concentration GHGs (CO(2) and CH(4)) contained in the pores of the Yedoma layer are released directly by dynamic degradation, as well as the processes by which GHGs are released by the decomposition of organic matter in the Yedoma layer and other permafrost. Our model simulations show that the total GHG emissions from permafrost degradation in the RCP8.5 scenario was estimated to be 31-63 PgC for CO(2) and 1261-2821 TgCH(4) for CH(4) (68(th) percentile of the perturbed model simulations, corresponding to a global average surface air temperature change of 0.05–0.11 °C), and 14-28 PgC for CO(2) and 618-1341 TgCH(4) for CH(4) (0.03–0.07 °C) in the RCP2.6 scenario. GHG emissions resulting from the dynamic degradation of the Yedoma layer were estimated to be less than 1% of the total emissions from the permafrost in both scenarios, possibly because of the small area ratio of the Yedoma layer. An advantage of PDGEM is that geographical distributions of GHG emissions can be estimated by combining a state-of-the-art land surface model featuring detailed physical processes with a GHG release model using a simple scheme, enabling us to consider a broad range of uncertainty regarding model parameters. In regions with large GHG emissions due to permafrost thawing, it may be possible to help reduce GHG emissions by taking measures such as restraining land development. [Image: see text] |
format |
Text |
author |
Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go |
author_facet |
Yokohata, Tokuta Saito, Kazuyuki Ito, Akihiko Ohno, Hiroshi Tanaka, Katsumasa Hajima, Tomohiro Iwahana, Go |
author_sort |
Yokohata, Tokuta |
title |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_short |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_full |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_fullStr |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
title_sort |
future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model |
publisher |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532133/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33088673 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
op_source |
Prog Earth Planet Sci |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7532133/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33088673 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8 |
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Progress in Earth and Planetary Science |
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7 |
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1 |
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