Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19

We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infecti...

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Published in:Journal of Econometrics
Main Authors: Hortaçsu, Ali, Liu, Jiarui, Schwieg, Timothy
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020
Subjects:
Article
Iceland
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
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spelling ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7476454 2023-05-15T16:48:54+02:00 Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19 Hortaçsu, Ali Liu, Jiarui Schwieg, Timothy 2020-09-07 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/ https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047 en eng Published by Elsevier B.V. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047 © 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. J Econom Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047 2020-09-13T00:25:37Z We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties. Text Iceland PubMed Central (PMC) Journal of Econometrics 220 1 106 129
institution Open Polar
collection PubMed Central (PMC)
op_collection_id ftpubmed
language English
topic Article
spellingShingle Article
Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
topic_facet Article
description We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.
format Text
author Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
author_facet Hortaçsu, Ali
Liu, Jiarui
Schwieg, Timothy
author_sort Hortaçsu, Ali
title Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_short Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_full Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_fullStr Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19
title_sort estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: an application to covid-19
publisher Published by Elsevier B.V.
publishDate 2020
url http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
genre Iceland
genre_facet Iceland
op_source J Econom
op_relation http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7476454/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
op_rights © 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.047
container_title Journal of Econometrics
container_volume 220
container_issue 1
container_start_page 106
op_container_end_page 129
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