Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story
A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundla...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7456209 2023-05-15T17:21:06+02:00 Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story Linka, Kevin Rahman, Proton Goriely, Alain Kuhl, Ellen 2020-08-29 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456209/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x en eng Springer Berlin Heidelberg http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456209/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. Comput Mech Original Paper Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x 2020-09-06T00:49:22Z A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening. Text Newfoundland PubMed Central (PMC) Canada Newfoundland Computational Mechanics 66 5 1081 1092 |
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Original Paper Linka, Kevin Rahman, Proton Goriely, Alain Kuhl, Ellen Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
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Original Paper |
description |
A key strategy to prevent a local outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic is to restrict incoming travel. Once a region has successfully contained the disease, it becomes critical to decide when and how to reopen the borders. Here we explore the impact of border reopening for the example of Newfoundland and Labrador, a Canadian province that has enjoyed no new cases since late April, 2020. We combine a network epidemiology model with machine learning to infer parameters and predict the COVID-19 dynamics upon partial and total airport reopening, with perfect and imperfect quarantine conditions. Our study suggests that upon full reopening, every other day, a new COVID-19 case would enter the province. Under the current conditions, banning air travel from outside Canada is more efficient in managing the pandemic than fully reopening and quarantining 95% of the incoming population. Our study provides quantitative insights of the efficacy of travel restrictions and can inform political decision making in the controversy of reopening. |
format |
Text |
author |
Linka, Kevin Rahman, Proton Goriely, Alain Kuhl, Ellen |
author_facet |
Linka, Kevin Rahman, Proton Goriely, Alain Kuhl, Ellen |
author_sort |
Linka, Kevin |
title |
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
title_short |
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
title_full |
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
title_fullStr |
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is it safe to lift COVID-19 travel bans? The Newfoundland story |
title_sort |
is it safe to lift covid-19 travel bans? the newfoundland story |
publisher |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456209/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x |
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Canada Newfoundland |
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Canada Newfoundland |
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Newfoundland |
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Newfoundland |
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Comput Mech |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456209/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x |
op_rights |
© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00466-020-01899-x |
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Computational Mechanics |
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66 |
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5 |
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1081 |
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1092 |
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